They said it

“We have absolute visibility on an increasing level of stock due to come onto the market… Compared with the desert of stock last year we expect an oasis of assets to choose from later in 2010.” Great Portland Estates’ chief executive Toby Courtauld after releasing the company’s Q3 interim management statement last month

“I was not surprised that IPD was driven by yield adjustments rather than rents. The difference compared with the 1990s is the extent to which the commercial property market is driven by global capital markets. The US peak to trough is 44%, exactly the same as the UK and not an extraordinary coincidence; rather it must to some extent reflect global investment market returns. “My optimism for property has evaporated compared to this time last year. I have worries about gilt yields and we have a low-growth world, implying low rental growth.” Financial Times columnist John Plender at an IPD index breakfast on 3 February

“Gilts are resting on a bed of nitroglycerine.” Bill Gross, head of Pimco, manager of the world’s largest bond mutual fund, commenting on UK debt on 26 January

“Asset value warning bells are being rung. A survey of 30 real estate companies by trade body REITA found less than 5% think the asset value recovery since August will continue at the same pace. They cited the ‘Obama impact on banks’, the end of quantitative easing, potential interest rate rises, fragile demand for commercial space and a mass sell-off of distressed assets by banks, which have £300bn of debt. This echoes our ‘Credit cold turkey’ [analyst’s note]: a year on from our point of maximum pessimism, we may be at the point of maximum optimism.” Nomura property analysts Mike Prew and Robert Duncan in a February note called ‘Taking the punch bowl away from the party’

“The dominant factor is the public deficit. The main adjustment will come in the form of higher taxes and my view is that it should come sooner rather than later. As for the view that it will choke the recovery if it’s too early, I don’t think there is a recovery, and it will restore public confidence by showing determination to tackle debt. “One of the things that makes me most pessimistic is the recovery in asset prices, which is fully attributable to quantitative easing. The effect hasn’t been to divert money to the industrial and other sectors, but to create a bubble. Quantitative easing is just putting off the inevitable.” Michael Portillo, addressing the Investment Property Forum’s annual lunch on 29 January

“If quantitative easing is the heroin, what’s the methadone?” Anonymous respondent in the ULI/PWC Emerging Trends Europe report

 

 

 

 

 

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