CMBS is viewed as having the poorest growth prospects of any securitisation class in 2015, according to Fitch Ratings.
In a Fitch survey conducted at the Global ABS conference in Barcelona, only 12% of respondents thought CMBS issuance would show the largest increase.
Delegates were asked if they thought publicly-placed European structured finance issuance volumes would rise or fall this year compared to 2014’s €80bn.
Almost 60% of respondents said they expected volumes to grow.
“Confidence is a key part of a healthy structured finance market and our survey results show it continues to return, albeit issuance levels are coming from a very low base,” said Marjan van der Weijden, Fitch’s EMEA head of structured finance.
Consumer ABS, such as credit card and car loan securitisations, would see the largest increase with 37% backing the class.
That was followed by 31% for CLOs, 20% for RMBS, with CMBS bring up the rear at 12%. European CMBS issuances in 2014 fell to €3.5bn, compared to 2013’s €8.6bn.
“The survey results also support our own opinion that greater clarity and consistency on the regulatory treatment of securitisations remains an important challenge to address before the market can return to its potential,” said van der Weijden.
Of those surveyed, 46% thought ABS issuance would rise between 10% and 25%, while 35% expected 2015 volumes to be largely in line with 2014 levels. About 6% of respondents expected a fall in volumes.
The Fitch Global ABS survey was conducted between 16-18 June and comprised 76 responses from investors, bankers, issuers and other related market participants who attended the ABS conference in Barcelona.