Agents tip investment surge to continue through 2011

European direct investment volumes in 2010 rebounded to €102bn, up 40% on 2009, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. CB Richard Ellis puts the final figure slightly higher, at €110bn in 2010, up from €73bn in 2009.

DTZ’s overall figures are close but slightly lower and show a bigger, 53% jump, from €62bn in 2009 to €96bn in 2010. The 2010 figures remain below the
10-year European average, but all the big agents are confident of further improvement this year. JLL and CBRE predict a 10-15% rise in investment in 2011. DTZ is more bullish, nailing its colours to a 28% pick-up.

Q4 volumes were particularly strong compared with Q4 2009 in the UK, Germany and the Nordics, as well as in other regions, particularly the US, China and Brazil, driven by larger lot sizes. That momentum seems to be continuing into Q1 2011.

Much capital is global now and Europe did well this year in relative comparison with the rest of world. JLL puts 2010 global deal volumes at $316bn – a 50% “surge” from 2009. Europe’s 40% rise was second to the Americas, where volumes jumped from $45bn to $97bn. JLL believes the Americas will see the largest percentage pick up this year, too, of 40% (see ‘Investment volumes by region’ chart).

DTZ estimates that global investment volumes bounced 65% to $325bn in 2010, with the most dramatic growth in Asia, where deal volumes doubled to $145bn  (JLL’s figure is only $83bn), with China alone doubling to $78bn.

The most dramatic deal volumes increase in Europe over the whole of 2010 was in the Nordics – up 153%, from €4.6bn in 2009 to €11.7bn in 2010, according to DTZ. “Barring further sovereign debt crises or financial shocks, the momentum of 2010 is expected to continue in the next 12 months,” says JLL’s international capital group head Arthur de Haast. “We predict global volumes for 2011 should increase by 20-25%.”

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