Fitch Ratings has just launched regular updates on European securitised loans that have fallen due for repayment or are set to mature. In 2010, there is €6bn of maturing CMBS debt in 93 loans that Fitch rates. “The number and volume of loans due to mature ticks up in 2010 then accelerates,” said Fitch CMBS team senior director Gioia Dominedo (see chart). “Detailed data and commentary on each loan will be increasingly valuable to investors”.
With property values down and new debt hard to arrange for all but the best assets, the biggest risk at maturity is of borrowers being unable to repay. The largest loan maturing early in 2010 is the €766m Uni-Invest loan, secured on 242 secondary and tertiary Dutch office buildings (see table). A standstill agreement on this loan was signed between servicer Eurohypo, the borrower and mezzanine lenders on 9 February (see news).
Most of the deals have not had property valuations carried out since they were issued but Fitch estimates that 80% have a loan-tovalue ratio of greater than 100%, indicating a very low probability of refinancing.